A wide scientific evidences and real-life experiences have proven that climate change hazards such as drought, shifting rainfall patterns, extreme weather events, sea level rise and coastal inundation pose serious risks to infrastructure, and to the livelihoods and socioeconomic wellbeing of many global communities.

This impact is typically effects the most by vulnerable groups – such as the elderly, pregnant women and young children.

The situation in Zanzibar archipelago is not different due to increasing climate risks vulnerability, particularly in its strategic sectors.

The Sectoral Climate Change Risk and Vulnerability Assessment (RVA) for Zanzibar has warned that climate change poses growing risks to Zanzibar’s economy, infrastructure, human settlements, social development and livelihoods, reflecting the urgent need for stronger adaptation strategies, policy coordination and investment in climate-resilient systems.

The study, conducted jointly by the Zanzibar Research Center for Socio-economic and Policy Analysis (ZRCP) and Oneworld Sustainable Investments, forms part of National Adaptation Project implemented for the government of Tanzania and the Revolutionary Government of Zanzibar through the Office of the First Vice President, with support from the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP).

The assessment aims to strengthen the ability of government institutions, practitioners, researchers and the community to evaluate climate risks and develop appropriate responses. It also provides practical tools that enable policymakers and sector actors to review and conduct climate risk and vulnerability assessments while identifying priority adaptation solutions.

To achieve these objectives, the experts relied heavily on available local datasets and climate models to map vulnerabilities across Zanzibar.

This study drew on available local data to inform the RVA mapping and sector assessments, and to capture vulnerability and risk identified by the climate models under various climate scenarios (sectoral, and zone levels) or global warming potentials.

The expert analysis and geospatial mapping focused on the identification and validation of hotspots in both territories. Risk and vulnerability manifest through multiple pathways across Zanzibar society, economy, and natural environments.

According to the report, risk and vulnerability linked to climate change are not confined to environmental impacts alone but manifest through multiple pathways affecting society, the economy and natural ecosystems.

One of the key outcomes of the study was the development of a self-assessment methodological tool that enables stakeholders to analyse climate risks within their sectors. The tool is designed to facilitate stakeholder engagement by encouraging institutions and communities to validate key indicators and contribute inputs that inform climate adaptation planning.

The findings indicate that some parts of Zanzibar are already experiencing high levels of climate vulnerability. The southern part of Unguja is identified as one of the most exposed areas both at present and in future climate projections.

Meanwhile, vulnerability is expected to intensify across much of Pemba Island in the coming years, particularly along coastal areas and especially on the eastern coast. These areas are considered more vulnerable largely due to their limited adaptive capacity.

Adaptive capacity in the context of the study refers to the ability of communities, systems and institutions to adjust to climate impacts and recover from shocks. In many parts of Zanzibar, this capacity is constrained by socio-economic factors such as limited access to electricity, informal settlements and low levels of economic diversification.

In addition to socio-economic factors, environmental indicators contribute significantly to vulnerability levels. These include rainfall received per crop, soil quality and water stress, as well as water availability measured through indicators such as water withdrawal per person.

Flow chart summarizing the methodological framework used in the study.

The vulnerability assessment covers nine key sectors that are critical to Zanzibar’s economy and social well-being. These include coastal and marine resources, water, tourism, forestry and wildlife, agriculture, livestock, fisheries, infrastructure and human settlements, and health.

Across these sectors, the report highlights the growing impact of climate hazards such as prolonged droughts, shifting rainfall patterns, rising temperatures, extreme weather events including cyclones, sea level rise and coastal inundation.

These climate hazards pose serious threats to infrastructure and ecosystems while also affecting livelihoods and socio-economic well-being. Vulnerable population groups—including the elderly, pregnant women and young children—are particularly exposed to these impacts.

Among the sectors analysed, water emerges as a central factor influencing climate resilience across the islands. The report describes water as a “multiplier” of climate risks, noting that water availability and quality affect almost every sector of the economy.

For example, water scarcity or variability can directly affect agricultural productivity and livestock health. It also influences inland fisheries, forestry resources and ecosystem stability. In service sectors such as tourism, health and human settlements, a reliable water supply is equally essential.

The analysis also emphasizes the importance of coastal and marine ecosystems as a foundation of Zanzibar’s adaptive capacity. Coral reefs, mangroves and coastal habitats provide natural protection against storms and coastal erosion while supporting fisheries and tourism.

However, these ecosystems are increasingly under pressure from climate change impacts.

Tourism, which is one of Zanzibar’s most important economic sectors, faces multiple risks due to climate change. The sector is highly dependent on the health of coastal and marine environments that attract visitors from around the world.

Infographic illustrating the cascading impacts of climate change across Zanzibar.

Rising temperatures, extreme weather events and environmental degradation could damage beaches, coral reefs and cultural heritage sites, ultimately reducing the attractiveness of Zanzibar as a tourist destination.

In addition, coastal infrastructure, including hotels, roads and health facilities, is vulnerable to flooding, storm surges and shoreline erosion.

Fisheries, another critical sector for food security and employment, also face mounting challenges. Ocean acidification and rising sea temperatures can damage marine ecosystems and alter fish migration patterns, affecting fish stocks that coastal communities depend on.

Damage to coral reefs and mangrove ecosystems could further weaken fish breeding grounds, leading to reduced catches and economic losses for fishing communities.

Agriculture is equally vulnerable due to its heavy reliance on rain-fed farming systems. Changing rainfall patterns, drought and flooding can disrupt crop production and threaten food security across the islands.

These growing risks highlight the need for urgent and coordinated action to strengthen resilience across sectors.

The report recommends a combination of policy reforms, capacity-building initiatives and increased investment in climate-smart technologies to improve Zanzibar’s adaptive capacity.

It also calls for stronger cross-sectoral collaboration among government agencies, private sector actors and local communities to ensure effective climate responses.

In addition, expanding access to climate finance will be critical in supporting adaptation projects and infrastructure development.

The study also points to the potential of sustainable economic diversification strategies such as eco-tourism and blue economy initiatives. These approaches can help reduce environmental pressure while creating new income opportunities for communities.

Ultimately, the findings of the vulnerability assessment provide a foundation for developing policies and strategies aimed at strengthening climate resilience in Zanzibar.

By integrating climate risk considerations into planning and investment decisions, policymakers can help protect vulnerable communities while supporting long-term economic and environmental sustainability across the islands.

This article was also published on the Zanzibar Investment and Business Insights Magazine